“The Cada Effect”
Poker players are familiar with the Chris Moneymaker effect. It resulted in the poker boom that we all participate in and feel the effect of. Depending on your age, profession, skill or lack of same it was either the best or the worst thing to ever happen to poker.
Now comes the Joe Cada effect. I was introduced to it this weekend at a tournament that I play monthly. That tournament usually has between 40 to 60 players with skill levels from beginner to professional. That makes it a dangerous tournament especially when you are against a player you don’t know and who doesn’t know you. I spend the first hour of this tournament assessing the sill level of the other players at my table and usually get moved to another table about the time I feel comfortable with my reads.
I encountered the Joe Cada effect when, in the big blind, I looked down at pocket aces. There were three limpers ahead of me and the cut off had raised three times the big blind. The worthy in the cutoff was a kid. I say that with all respect and affection, I love kids. I have five of my own. This guy is younger than any of mine and my read of him was, reckless, loose, risk taker. In short, he’s an internet/cash game beginner with no idea of odds, percentages or skill. I know, I can already hear the “sour grapes” comments.
Back to the hand. I believe in the old adage “win a small pot or lose a big one” with aces. I have, believe it or not, thrown aces away when my pre-flop raise was insufficient to drive all but one player out of the hand and the flop held flush or straight cards and I had a big bet into me. This time I pushed all in and everyone folded up to the cut off. He thought about it, oh, maybe two seconds. “Call” he announced.
Pocket threes. To make matters worse, one other player informed me that he had folded 5-3 off. Flop has no straight or flush possibilities and more to the point, no three. One out. Huge dog. 97%. You do the math. Of course he hit the case 3 on the turn. No ace on the river and I’m going home.
The young man informs the table “I saw Joe Cada do it to Jeff Shulman and I figured if Joe and do it, I can.” That, my friends, is the Joe Cada effect.
The problem with Joe Cada as the WSOP Main Event Champion is that he is too young to fully realize just how lucky he got. He undermines the “Skill vs Luck” argument and negates any facts or figures those of us who believe that poker is more about skill than luck, can throw at the subject. Yes, any single hand or even series of hands can and often does turn on the luck (or lack of same) of an individual player. Had Phil Ivey or even Jeff Shulman won, our argument would have gained weight. As it is, we have a steeper hill to climb.